Artificial scarcity: demand increases while supply increases: the rich get richer while the poor get poorer
Actual scarcity: demand increases while supply decreases: the rich get richer for a bit then poorer while the poor get poorer
Why not base an economy on an essentially infinite resource? Sunlight.
The rich get richer while the poor get richer.
Not a fucking new idea but a novel one. Just saying.
Oh yeah. And fuck you Milton Friedman and your trickle-down economics and everything you're about. We are utilizing finite resources. I'll take that Nobel prize back anytime you're ready.
18.5.11
Wait a minute... OPEN YOUR FUCKING EYES
So I am becoming someone new again. That rapid growth period where every joint aches. I am growing a new sensory organ. Let me tell you alllll about it.
I'm not going to toot my own horn, for very long, but I was a very intelligent and contemplative child. I rarely spoke except to ask my dad questions. I think back now to the questions I would ask and remember the staggering number of instances in which the response was "I don't know, son. No one really does."
Fair enough. Some things are just too difficult to grasp. I have no idea how to make a toaster from scratch.... Wait. Wait a minute. Yes I fucking do! It would take a long time though! That was my ah-hah tonight.
Complexity arises from simple parts. These simple parts make many connections within the system and begin to create emergent behavior. Behavior different than the behavior of individual parts. This is the way I've thought complex human society works. And it does to some extent. But as far as the vast number of human issues out at the forefront today go... it doesn't account!! And this brings me to the worst point to ever ever ever Ever FUCKING EVER realize!
OIL
Oil is more than gas prices. It's a big part, but that's too narrow to think about! Oil is our country's energy source. It drives infrastructure. Everyone talking about going green has the right idea but the wrong approach. Want to make everything based on corn products, eg. ethanol? How will you harvest it? Fuck using tractors, it costs oil to produce the steel, run the plants, make tires, fuel the tractors, maintain the tractors. How will you manufacture it? It costs oil to transport the corn, build the factories, run the machinery, produce the enzymes, store the ethanol, and transport the ethanol. What if we built a bunch of ethanol factories now? The energy yield of corn ethanol is not enough to sustain the production of ethanol! We forget that oil is already energy rich and all we need to do is move the shit out of the ground and, relative to ethanol production, do a small amount of consumer grade refining!
Plastic? Forget about it. Try to go a day without using anything plastic. I doubt you will get more than 2 or 3 menial tasks done. Fuck driving, your car won't run without the thousands of plastic components its built with. Medicine? No treatment that involves plastic medical supplies for you.
Peak oil is the moment in time when oil production surpasses oil discovery and the beginning of oil depletion. Oil reserves are described by a small fucking dictionary of actuarial terms which assign probability values to the various oil wells. Emphasis on fucking. Why? Because that is the point of this post. We are getting fucked.
Related: I am a grown man and it took me several weeks to find a reasonable answer of what a fucking derivative (in the economic sense not calculus sense) is. The concept is difficult because so-called experts, or gurus, or finance gods (essentially the people with the money) don't want you to understand money. A derivative is essentially any non-real thing that is assigned value based on something that has actual fucking value. What's interesting is that stocks are not considered derivatives of companies. (or maybe they are... fuck) Stocks are not really things that have true intrinsic value because the company can created more stock at any time, out of thin air. To makes things even more convoluted, there are stock derivatives which have value, which are based on stock value, which is based on investor sentiment which is based on company value and revenues and profits and assets and trading volume and shares outstanding and news and hearsay and schemes and scandals and politics. Not unlike the oil business, within all this economic bullshit is another vast actuarial fucking dictionary filled with terms like longs and shorts and calls and puts and shorts and covers.
Compound interest? Fuck me. Attempt to explain the real world dynamics of this outside of actuarial terms and you'll realize what a fucking pyramid scheme this all is.
Because I have seen it with my own eyes, I'll recap the Iraq bullshit.
What we were supposed to think happened:
Bush:
-9/11
-Massive world network of anti-American terrorists are going to bring down the country if we don't stop them
-Afghanistan: destroyed a powerful network of cave-dwelling evil geniuses
-Iraq: found weapons of mass destruction... well almost, saved world from near holocaust and a people of decades of repression and fear and pain
-Massive intelligence network hunting down the remaining key players of Al Qaeda.
-Operation 'merica Fuck Yeah! over any time now.
-Military will be retracted any time now.
Obama:
-Lets build the bottom up.
-Lets create green energy.
-We should decrease dependency on foreign oil.
-We're gonna bring the troops home dawg.
-Well, we're not gonna bring the troops home yet because 'merica 'n freedom.
In hindsight what really happened:
Bush:
-9/11
-Fuck around in Afghanistan. Afghanis are like "thanks... I guess..."
-Well, lets go after Hussein (what?)
-Build largest set of U.S. military bases in the world.
-Build largest U.S. Embassy compound in the world.
-Military contractors make fat bank.
-Overthrow government planning to put its oil in the euro. Iraqis are like "thanks... I guess..."
-Set-up U.S. sympathetic government.
-Put Iraq's oil in the dollar.
-U.S. Oil makes fat bank.
-Maintain U.S. economic and military presence in Iraq.
Obama:
-Passes fast food bill - taxes lower class
-Attempts to pass medical reform bill, without even addressing the distribution of wealth issue (meaning cheaper healthcare for us, but more taxes for us, while Big Health makes fat bank anway)
-Does abso-fucking-lutely nothing for alternative energy.
-Supports drilling at home, says decrease foreign dependency
-Maintain U.S. economic and military presence in Iraq.
It's like they are saying this right behind my back, "That fucking moron. We have him so confused on our stances in the issues that we can say one thing do the complete opposite. And he'll praise us for it! Well, we'll drill in Alaska AND maintain presence in the Middle East! I'll fucking do anything to appear to slow the growth of the deficit to save face, even though the deficit will increase anyway. The whole world is going to shit, might as well ride the beast down reigns in hand, right guys LOL?!" *high fives Forbes and Buffett*
I am angry.
Here's another little tidbit to consider:
-We're told Saudi Arabia has massive oil inland reserves.
-Land oil is MUCH cheaper to produce than offshore oil.
-Saudi Arabia exports oil from offshore drilling.
How much oil do you really think there is now?
I'm not suggesting any certain mode of thought, more suggesting a path of reasonable skepticism. These are facts.
Oil prices are going up... no new accessible oil is being found. I think we are seeing peak oil peek its dirty fucking head out. And no one cares, because no one knows.
I'm not going to toot my own horn, for very long, but I was a very intelligent and contemplative child. I rarely spoke except to ask my dad questions. I think back now to the questions I would ask and remember the staggering number of instances in which the response was "I don't know, son. No one really does."
Fair enough. Some things are just too difficult to grasp. I have no idea how to make a toaster from scratch.... Wait. Wait a minute. Yes I fucking do! It would take a long time though! That was my ah-hah tonight.
Complexity arises from simple parts. These simple parts make many connections within the system and begin to create emergent behavior. Behavior different than the behavior of individual parts. This is the way I've thought complex human society works. And it does to some extent. But as far as the vast number of human issues out at the forefront today go... it doesn't account!! And this brings me to the worst point to ever ever ever Ever FUCKING EVER realize!
OIL
Oil is more than gas prices. It's a big part, but that's too narrow to think about! Oil is our country's energy source. It drives infrastructure. Everyone talking about going green has the right idea but the wrong approach. Want to make everything based on corn products, eg. ethanol? How will you harvest it? Fuck using tractors, it costs oil to produce the steel, run the plants, make tires, fuel the tractors, maintain the tractors. How will you manufacture it? It costs oil to transport the corn, build the factories, run the machinery, produce the enzymes, store the ethanol, and transport the ethanol. What if we built a bunch of ethanol factories now? The energy yield of corn ethanol is not enough to sustain the production of ethanol! We forget that oil is already energy rich and all we need to do is move the shit out of the ground and, relative to ethanol production, do a small amount of consumer grade refining!
Plastic? Forget about it. Try to go a day without using anything plastic. I doubt you will get more than 2 or 3 menial tasks done. Fuck driving, your car won't run without the thousands of plastic components its built with. Medicine? No treatment that involves plastic medical supplies for you.
Peak oil is the moment in time when oil production surpasses oil discovery and the beginning of oil depletion. Oil reserves are described by a small fucking dictionary of actuarial terms which assign probability values to the various oil wells. Emphasis on fucking. Why? Because that is the point of this post. We are getting fucked.
Related: I am a grown man and it took me several weeks to find a reasonable answer of what a fucking derivative (in the economic sense not calculus sense) is. The concept is difficult because so-called experts, or gurus, or finance gods (essentially the people with the money) don't want you to understand money. A derivative is essentially any non-real thing that is assigned value based on something that has actual fucking value. What's interesting is that stocks are not considered derivatives of companies. (or maybe they are... fuck) Stocks are not really things that have true intrinsic value because the company can created more stock at any time, out of thin air. To makes things even more convoluted, there are stock derivatives which have value, which are based on stock value, which is based on investor sentiment which is based on company value and revenues and profits and assets and trading volume and shares outstanding and news and hearsay and schemes and scandals and politics. Not unlike the oil business, within all this economic bullshit is another vast actuarial fucking dictionary filled with terms like longs and shorts and calls and puts and shorts and covers.
Compound interest? Fuck me. Attempt to explain the real world dynamics of this outside of actuarial terms and you'll realize what a fucking pyramid scheme this all is.
Because I have seen it with my own eyes, I'll recap the Iraq bullshit.
What we were supposed to think happened:
Bush:
-9/11
-Massive world network of anti-American terrorists are going to bring down the country if we don't stop them
-Afghanistan: destroyed a powerful network of cave-dwelling evil geniuses
-Iraq: found weapons of mass destruction... well almost, saved world from near holocaust and a people of decades of repression and fear and pain
-Massive intelligence network hunting down the remaining key players of Al Qaeda.
-Operation 'merica Fuck Yeah! over any time now.
-Military will be retracted any time now.
Obama:
-Lets build the bottom up.
-Lets create green energy.
-We should decrease dependency on foreign oil.
-We're gonna bring the troops home dawg.
-Well, we're not gonna bring the troops home yet because 'merica 'n freedom.
In hindsight what really happened:
Bush:
-9/11
-Fuck around in Afghanistan. Afghanis are like "thanks... I guess..."
-Well, lets go after Hussein (what?)
-Build largest set of U.S. military bases in the world.
-Build largest U.S. Embassy compound in the world.
-Military contractors make fat bank.
-Overthrow government planning to put its oil in the euro. Iraqis are like "thanks... I guess..."
-Set-up U.S. sympathetic government.
-Put Iraq's oil in the dollar.
-U.S. Oil makes fat bank.
-Maintain U.S. economic and military presence in Iraq.
Obama:
-Passes fast food bill - taxes lower class
-Attempts to pass medical reform bill, without even addressing the distribution of wealth issue (meaning cheaper healthcare for us, but more taxes for us, while Big Health makes fat bank anway)
-Does abso-fucking-lutely nothing for alternative energy.
-Supports drilling at home, says decrease foreign dependency
-Maintain U.S. economic and military presence in Iraq.
It's like they are saying this right behind my back, "That fucking moron. We have him so confused on our stances in the issues that we can say one thing do the complete opposite. And he'll praise us for it! Well, we'll drill in Alaska AND maintain presence in the Middle East! I'll fucking do anything to appear to slow the growth of the deficit to save face, even though the deficit will increase anyway. The whole world is going to shit, might as well ride the beast down reigns in hand, right guys LOL?!" *high fives Forbes and Buffett*
I am angry.
Here's another little tidbit to consider:
-We're told Saudi Arabia has massive oil inland reserves.
-Land oil is MUCH cheaper to produce than offshore oil.
-Saudi Arabia exports oil from offshore drilling.
How much oil do you really think there is now?
I'm not suggesting any certain mode of thought, more suggesting a path of reasonable skepticism. These are facts.
Oil prices are going up... no new accessible oil is being found. I think we are seeing peak oil peek its dirty fucking head out. And no one cares, because no one knows.
This part of my life is called "Obsessed with Economics"
Watching the dot com bubble burst in slow motion is revealing a shift in investor interest and consumer interest. Mobile devices have had an overall negative effect on PC companies stuck in the traditional personal software and boxed computer per consumer plan. Microsoft and its minions Dell and HP produce software and hardware for the consumer to buy off the shelf to run in their home. As many businesses begin the shift to the more cost-effective cloud computing, Google takes the lead in offering the most widely used cloud computing services and is releasing an OS in June which basically runs a barebone chrome browser. Sounds like a giant cellphone to me, I won't be buying one... but... who knows. Dell and HP are building similar services but I'm afraid they might be a little too late to overtake the monster perfectionist Google if the service line takes off.
I like HP, always have. HP's stock price has plummeted since Q1 of 2010. Their recent quarterly report has investors pretty disappointed. But I like HP, and I think it's going to be a strong buy this year once the price hits support. They have stayed in the game when so many others have not. While they may never break into a decent share of the cloud-computing market, I have a feeling HP's shining moment is when it goes back to its roots - developing state of the art hardware. HP has been working on memristors for a while now, and recent reports show that they are making huge strides in design feasability and, from what I can tell, design robustness. The memristor is not a marketed product. A memristor is a fundamental passive electrical component. It is classed with it siblings the resistor, capacitor, and inductor. The memristor will open up completely new technologies. HPs focus is in applying its titanium dioxide memristors to replace all types of transistor computer memory. Memristors also have been shown to have logic functions which could replace traditional transistors in CPUs. HP and its buddy Hynix will soon be barking up Intel's tree. I can't wait. Poor kids just keep shoving in more cores.
Basic research drive this country. Nothing could be more basic than learning how to produce a fundamental component of electrical engineering. I'll be doing technicals on HP from now on to see when to get in. But I'm getting in. And I'm riding the memristor success trend to the top. Hell I may even short Dell and Intel for good measure.
I like HP, always have. HP's stock price has plummeted since Q1 of 2010. Their recent quarterly report has investors pretty disappointed. But I like HP, and I think it's going to be a strong buy this year once the price hits support. They have stayed in the game when so many others have not. While they may never break into a decent share of the cloud-computing market, I have a feeling HP's shining moment is when it goes back to its roots - developing state of the art hardware. HP has been working on memristors for a while now, and recent reports show that they are making huge strides in design feasability and, from what I can tell, design robustness. The memristor is not a marketed product. A memristor is a fundamental passive electrical component. It is classed with it siblings the resistor, capacitor, and inductor. The memristor will open up completely new technologies. HPs focus is in applying its titanium dioxide memristors to replace all types of transistor computer memory. Memristors also have been shown to have logic functions which could replace traditional transistors in CPUs. HP and its buddy Hynix will soon be barking up Intel's tree. I can't wait. Poor kids just keep shoving in more cores.
Basic research drive this country. Nothing could be more basic than learning how to produce a fundamental component of electrical engineering. I'll be doing technicals on HP from now on to see when to get in. But I'm getting in. And I'm riding the memristor success trend to the top. Hell I may even short Dell and Intel for good measure.
14.5.11
The World's Largest MMO
The stock market, Nasdaq specifically, is an immense network of professional gamers with such intense skills and knowledge of the game that, while comparing them with actual gamers is about the closest analogy I can conjure, it would be a gross understatement.
I watched Pi the other night, for the bazillionth time, and have gotten hooked on Numb3rs (a guilty pleasure). I spend most of my waking hours making mathematical observations of my surroundings as mainly an aesthetic pursuit. Trolling physicsforums.com for occasional "well, I never though of it that way!" or on the most fortunate of visits "my god I had no idea!" Understanding and formulating order of and within my surrounding with the most concise language ever conjured is essential the summary of all of my interests and hobbies. (Though admittedly I have a narrower knowledge-base than I'd like.) Lately, I've regressed to my childhood behavior of sitting in a steam shower thinking and imagining... it's been my Valhalla. I am tempted to buy some bath crayons tomorrow in order to help organize my ideas a bit better.
ECEN 303 - Signals and Systems Processing
I made a 20 in this class. And for a statistics class the fact that the absurdly skewed curve of the grades set me points away from a D is testament to the what-the-fuck-ness of that class. But I learned a lot. I learned that games are the most important way to learn about the universe. Game theory coupled with statistics and a good grasp of human nature and psychology will give you an advantage in any real life situation dealing with repetitive quantifiable occurrences. I learned that perfectly discreet functions are the foundation for perfectly chaotic functions. I learned that a game of darts is usually the best analogy for multivariable analysis. Even more so a game of lawn darts, as it simplifies the inputs with the same dependent variables and sets.
Numbers tell a story. If I had to pick a mathematician from history to spend an evening discussion with, it would not be Euclid, or Fermat, or Newton... it would be Descartes. Descartes with his invention of the Cartesian coordinate system allowed a simple and robust method of correlating data and seeing numerical behavior. I'd like to think that other methods of data display are simply stems of this method. Data display of real systems can reveal more how variable relate through an equation. They can uncover trends, provide insight into variables not yet realized involved in the data. In many cases these trends can be quantified (hence the entrance of differential and integral calculus). Further models can be built and tested against common sense and observation and though experiments.
I have been reading for several days nonstop on the behavior and mechanics of the stock market, and thinking of ways that the data can be analyzed. I am more conscious of business news now than ever before after realizing that a giant game built for grownups, based on the profit system, artificial scarcity, and driven mainly by public opinion of a companies worth or lack thereof which is in turn driven by real world technological and infrastructural development, social, cultural and political change, is (somewhat) freely accessible from my home computer.
Back to the game analogy. Life is a game in which there are no resets - I like to think that sums it up fairly well. You have your stats - intelligence, charisma, health, etc. Which, nowadays can actually be be roughly quantified - at least relatively!
Like all MMORPGs, the beginning of your adventure involves a few starter quests: delivering pizzas, helping farmer Buttnut collect his sheep, real-world item trading, skill training, scavenging, etc. Now you have some basic tools that you will use to enter the risky meaty part of the game. A sandbox style wildland with risk and reward at every turn. However, in all well designed games, the risk is balanced in order to satiate the human need for calculated profit vs. risk - IRL the developers want you to have fun so they make a profit! But, you could just be a terrible player. Putting all your effort into killing boss #2 before #1 in hopes of a greater reward making boss #1 easier afterward is a bad move on your part. You are likely way underprepared and statistics may show that you are just plain dancing with futility.
Point being - you need to learn the game before you make irreversible mistakes. Low risk trial and error is one method for learning anything. Studying the mechanics, tools and methods is another method. Each one has its pros and cons. Trial and error has the benefit of possible early success and insights into gaps in knowledge and ability. Studying and preparation is key to increasing your effectiveness as a player, increasing your odds, narrowing that margin - but in the real world - time is money and sadly there are no 1-ups. I'll go with a combination of both.
What do I need in order to be effective? Well, lets look at the variables I proposed earlier:
based on the profit system
artificial scarcity
driven mainly by public opinion of a companies worth or lack thereo
driven somewhat by the companies actual worth (assets)
driven by real world technological and infrastructural development
social, cultural and political change
I can weigh the impact of each of the variables.
I can find dependent variables which are affected by the weight and value of each of the above variables.
I can find independent variables which affect the weight and value of each of the above variables..
These relationships I can begin to build a pyramid type hierarchy of variables, discovering which real world events and conditions (variables) effect each other and which variables are most susceptible to volatility - which have the makings of a good foray into perturbation and chaos theory.
Essentially we can come up with a rough equation which can estimate the investment value of a certain market or company. Low value = poor investment. High value = good investment. This equation in a long rough explanatory form would be a composite function of many variables - most likely a differential eqn. but not necessarily time dependent (*a note to my engineering brain). I hypothesize that this eqn. will be reducible to fewer variables than suggested in my initial formulation, as some variables may reveal themselves to be subtle re-expressions of a common basic principle. In other words, one variable of higher hierarchical order may be more easily expressed and evaluated from data than that lower hierarchical order variables it is dependent on. This will most likely be constrained by the resolution of available data, and/or the availability of such data whatsoever.
Investment value might be called profitability and be denoted P(X). where x is a function of all lower variables.
In a hypothetical hierarchy, variables branch down from P(X) to, lets say g(b) where b is some element of a data-set.
The composite form for P(b) might look like P(f(h(g(b))) but is most likely not a realistic expression for profitability because variables will most certainly be interdependent.
A great deal of data needs to be collected and analysis completed to determine the relationships as of yet, obviously. I just started this idea mid shower this morning. Hell, there may even be a similar formula waiting on Wikipedia or some forum I've yet to stumble across - in fact I trust that there is. No way in hell mathematicians in the past could resist attempting the formulation of a robust statistical tool. This work is meant to be an algorithm of my own personal insight, opinion and thought process and as such some variables or constants may be simple educated estimations or even gut feelings when calculated. This work will not be meant as a definitive tool for predicting the stock market. After all, these maths will be considering the entire human condition and how individuals are effecting the most one of the most complex human systems on the planet.
I think the simplest way of weighing results is comparative analysis. eg. max(P1, P2, P3, ..., Pn). This will
Psychology
This might be the most difficult set to deal with when calculating. Social data provided by Google analytics, polls, social networks, or similar mediums might be the best method of determining a majorities outlook on a product or company.
Coding
Look into Google API for data retrieval and are at a loss to decide which programming platform would be best suited for the tasks.
Brainstorming complete.
Next post: report of process of implementing all said ideas as possible and making notes on further things to consider
I watched Pi the other night, for the bazillionth time, and have gotten hooked on Numb3rs (a guilty pleasure). I spend most of my waking hours making mathematical observations of my surroundings as mainly an aesthetic pursuit. Trolling physicsforums.com for occasional "well, I never though of it that way!" or on the most fortunate of visits "my god I had no idea!" Understanding and formulating order of and within my surrounding with the most concise language ever conjured is essential the summary of all of my interests and hobbies. (Though admittedly I have a narrower knowledge-base than I'd like.) Lately, I've regressed to my childhood behavior of sitting in a steam shower thinking and imagining... it's been my Valhalla. I am tempted to buy some bath crayons tomorrow in order to help organize my ideas a bit better.
ECEN 303 - Signals and Systems Processing
I made a 20 in this class. And for a statistics class the fact that the absurdly skewed curve of the grades set me points away from a D is testament to the what-the-fuck-ness of that class. But I learned a lot. I learned that games are the most important way to learn about the universe. Game theory coupled with statistics and a good grasp of human nature and psychology will give you an advantage in any real life situation dealing with repetitive quantifiable occurrences. I learned that perfectly discreet functions are the foundation for perfectly chaotic functions. I learned that a game of darts is usually the best analogy for multivariable analysis. Even more so a game of lawn darts, as it simplifies the inputs with the same dependent variables and sets.
Numbers tell a story. If I had to pick a mathematician from history to spend an evening discussion with, it would not be Euclid, or Fermat, or Newton... it would be Descartes. Descartes with his invention of the Cartesian coordinate system allowed a simple and robust method of correlating data and seeing numerical behavior. I'd like to think that other methods of data display are simply stems of this method. Data display of real systems can reveal more how variable relate through an equation. They can uncover trends, provide insight into variables not yet realized involved in the data. In many cases these trends can be quantified (hence the entrance of differential and integral calculus). Further models can be built and tested against common sense and observation and though experiments.
I have been reading for several days nonstop on the behavior and mechanics of the stock market, and thinking of ways that the data can be analyzed. I am more conscious of business news now than ever before after realizing that a giant game built for grownups, based on the profit system, artificial scarcity, and driven mainly by public opinion of a companies worth or lack thereof which is in turn driven by real world technological and infrastructural development, social, cultural and political change, is (somewhat) freely accessible from my home computer.
Back to the game analogy. Life is a game in which there are no resets - I like to think that sums it up fairly well. You have your stats - intelligence, charisma, health, etc. Which, nowadays can actually be be roughly quantified - at least relatively!
Like all MMORPGs, the beginning of your adventure involves a few starter quests: delivering pizzas, helping farmer Buttnut collect his sheep, real-world item trading, skill training, scavenging, etc. Now you have some basic tools that you will use to enter the risky meaty part of the game. A sandbox style wildland with risk and reward at every turn. However, in all well designed games, the risk is balanced in order to satiate the human need for calculated profit vs. risk - IRL the developers want you to have fun so they make a profit! But, you could just be a terrible player. Putting all your effort into killing boss #2 before #1 in hopes of a greater reward making boss #1 easier afterward is a bad move on your part. You are likely way underprepared and statistics may show that you are just plain dancing with futility.
Point being - you need to learn the game before you make irreversible mistakes. Low risk trial and error is one method for learning anything. Studying the mechanics, tools and methods is another method. Each one has its pros and cons. Trial and error has the benefit of possible early success and insights into gaps in knowledge and ability. Studying and preparation is key to increasing your effectiveness as a player, increasing your odds, narrowing that margin - but in the real world - time is money and sadly there are no 1-ups. I'll go with a combination of both.
What do I need in order to be effective? Well, lets look at the variables I proposed earlier:
based on the profit system
artificial scarcity
driven mainly by public opinion of a companies worth or lack thereo
driven somewhat by the companies actual worth (assets)
driven by real world technological and infrastructural development
social, cultural and political change
I can weigh the impact of each of the variables.
I can find dependent variables which are affected by the weight and value of each of the above variables.
I can find independent variables which affect the weight and value of each of the above variables..
These relationships I can begin to build a pyramid type hierarchy of variables, discovering which real world events and conditions (variables) effect each other and which variables are most susceptible to volatility - which have the makings of a good foray into perturbation and chaos theory.
Essentially we can come up with a rough equation which can estimate the investment value of a certain market or company. Low value = poor investment. High value = good investment. This equation in a long rough explanatory form would be a composite function of many variables - most likely a differential eqn. but not necessarily time dependent (*a note to my engineering brain). I hypothesize that this eqn. will be reducible to fewer variables than suggested in my initial formulation, as some variables may reveal themselves to be subtle re-expressions of a common basic principle. In other words, one variable of higher hierarchical order may be more easily expressed and evaluated from data than that lower hierarchical order variables it is dependent on. This will most likely be constrained by the resolution of available data, and/or the availability of such data whatsoever.
Investment value might be called profitability and be denoted P(X). where x is a function of all lower variables.
In a hypothetical hierarchy, variables branch down from P(X) to, lets say g(b) where b is some element of a data-set.
The composite form for P(b) might look like P(f(h(g(b))) but is most likely not a realistic expression for profitability because variables will most certainly be interdependent.
A great deal of data needs to be collected and analysis completed to determine the relationships as of yet, obviously. I just started this idea mid shower this morning. Hell, there may even be a similar formula waiting on Wikipedia or some forum I've yet to stumble across - in fact I trust that there is. No way in hell mathematicians in the past could resist attempting the formulation of a robust statistical tool. This work is meant to be an algorithm of my own personal insight, opinion and thought process and as such some variables or constants may be simple educated estimations or even gut feelings when calculated. This work will not be meant as a definitive tool for predicting the stock market. After all, these maths will be considering the entire human condition and how individuals are effecting the most one of the most complex human systems on the planet.
I think the simplest way of weighing results is comparative analysis. eg. max(P1, P2, P3, ..., Pn). This will
Psychology
This might be the most difficult set to deal with when calculating. Social data provided by Google analytics, polls, social networks, or similar mediums might be the best method of determining a majorities outlook on a product or company.
Coding
Look into Google API for data retrieval and are at a loss to decide which programming platform would be best suited for the tasks.
Brainstorming complete.
Next post: report of process of implementing all said ideas as possible and making notes on further things to consider
27.1.11
How synonyms properly defined and continuous state spaces can form an intuitive model of what it means to love.
In grade school we are all taught that synonyms are words that mean the same thing. That the term 'synonymous' means to have identical definitions. It's not the case and for personal reasons I would like to demonstrate the importance of choosing the best of several 'synonyms'.
Months or minutes.
I want to share an idea with you and take the opportunity to have an adventure. An adventure of the mind which make take us no where spatially, but, as with all adventures, takes us on twists and turns and leaves us metamorphosed for the rest of our lives, succeed or fail. I want to take this adventure at every opportunity, whether it takes months or minutes to complete, and all I ask is that we don't give up until we have experienced something together. To me, sharing a solid idea is the most intimate moment between two people, and is the essence of love.
Conciseness
Often these adventures take a path toward, well... a trajectory leading directly into the ground and an inelastic collision of confusion. This is often because with have rigged the oxen on the back of the cart and are attempting to make them push, or have no oxen at all. Something is backwards. We've yet to embark on our oxen adventure. But instead of backtracking, we give up completely. Loaded words are dangerous to adventurous speak because they drive the listener into confusion and boredom.
Intersecting vs. convergent state-space
We can take our journey with a single goal in mind, a single point in a state space, and hope to meet in the middle at some point. How fleeting a feeling when the curves continue along their winding routes, possibly never to meet again. Forever askew from t0'... inf. Or we could match our equation to one with an identical dependent convergence value. If a function of t, and allowing for enough time, concurrence occurs between the two.
I made my point. At least to myself.
Months or minutes.
I want to share an idea with you and take the opportunity to have an adventure. An adventure of the mind which make take us no where spatially, but, as with all adventures, takes us on twists and turns and leaves us metamorphosed for the rest of our lives, succeed or fail. I want to take this adventure at every opportunity, whether it takes months or minutes to complete, and all I ask is that we don't give up until we have experienced something together. To me, sharing a solid idea is the most intimate moment between two people, and is the essence of love.
Conciseness
Often these adventures take a path toward, well... a trajectory leading directly into the ground and an inelastic collision of confusion. This is often because with have rigged the oxen on the back of the cart and are attempting to make them push, or have no oxen at all. Something is backwards. We've yet to embark on our oxen adventure. But instead of backtracking, we give up completely. Loaded words are dangerous to adventurous speak because they drive the listener into confusion and boredom.
Intersecting vs. convergent state-space
We can take our journey with a single goal in mind, a single point in a state space, and hope to meet in the middle at some point. How fleeting a feeling when the curves continue along their winding routes, possibly never to meet again. Forever askew from t0'... inf. Or we could match our equation to one with an identical dependent convergence value. If a function of t, and allowing for enough time, concurrence occurs between the two.
I made my point. At least to myself.
Over a month...
...since my last post. I guess that means things have been going well. More posts to come tonight.
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